Are We Gonna Crash?
I don’t really think so. Of course, this is my personal opinion, and I can only speak for my market (Florida), but I don’t see that happening. The previous crash was brought on, in large part, due to banks and lenders giving impossible loans to every and anyone who asked and then telling them to refinance one day. That is not happening currently. Buying a house is a complicated mess from the mortgage perspective.
Getting the letter in the mail saying, “You’re pre-qualified for up to $$$” is not where that ends. Hell, it’s not even where it begins. It’s just marketing. Once you actually apply, send in your documentation, and they look at your whole financial history, your income, & the taxes & fees of where you are trying to buy, people are weeded out REAL quick. And that’s before the processors and underwriters start looking for issues. I just had to tell a family that based on their qualification, they cannot buy the home they want.
Side Note: Please pay your bills, if possible guys. 90+ days late on paying them is a HUGE red flag to lenders and really narrows your options. Here are Ten Things That Can Put Your Mortgage At Risk.
What’s happening right now is a lack of supply and a lot of demand. More people want homes than there are homes that exist. New construction is trying, but with supply chains as broken as they are, they can barely handle what they’ve got. The lack of supply is not ending anytime soon.
However, pricing has gotten way the fuck out of hand. I do think that will slow down or maybe even go down a bit as buyers just say, “Nope. I give up.” Of course, once that happens, buyers come back, things start selling at a higher pace again, and the cycle continues.
Right now, it has been slowing down a bit, but it typically slows down around this time of year. Then things start picking up in December, take a hiatus for the holidays, and then January-May is hell. For that time, I essentially kiss Mr. FOGA, pet my cat, and tell them that I’ll see them in a few months. Okay, it’s not THAT bad, but it gets crazy. Basically, from what I can tell, this isn’t crashing or going away quickly. At least, not in my market.
Again, this is my personal opinion based on the fact that I do this for a living. No one can predict the market or what’s going to happen in the future. If I could do that, this blog would never have needed to exist cause I would have struck gold a LONG time ago and would be on an island somewhere. 😂
What do you think? How is the real estate market in your area?
Feature Photo by Quino Al on Unsplash
I’ve been thinking about this. Houses here usually go so fast that they’re pending before the first weekend of the listing. I’ve been watching one house nearby just sit on the market and either the market is slowing way the hell down or they’re the most incompetent agents in the universe. 90% sure it’s the latter because it’s very obvious to those of us who live here that they’re lying through their teeth about the listing. They claimed that it’s got a new roof – they just painted it. They claimed that the landscaping has been completely redone and that’s a super easy lie to debunk.
But the pricing on nearby properties has been batguano unbelievable and it feels like a runaway train. Surely this has to slow down, who can afford this?? And I’m not thrilled about what those comps are doing to our taxes either 😝
Yeah. I am hoping for everything to be slowing down for a bit. The market has been unforgiving for those who price their homes too high or lie on the listings as of late. That’s been nice to see. If you price it right based on how the home actually is, it seems to be going fairly quickly still, but a little bit slower. Of course, I have been on vacation and purposefully not checking in for a minute so we’ll see how we are trending when I get back on Friday. 🙂
Thanks for reading!
Of course there will be future crashes of all markets, and future climbs as well. And nobody knows when or for how long. Being in the real estate business won’t help you see the next black swan until it lands on top of you. But that’s not a criticism, it’s just a statistical fact that markets run in unpredictable cycles. It may be ten or twenty years before the housing market regresses to the mean, or it might be ten or twenty months. I tend to agree with your opinion because you are an expert but I also believe anything could happen.
Absolutely. Markets go up and down. That is the way of it. I was meaning specifically right now based on the information we have, in my area. Something big happens and all that’s out the window for sure. That’s why I don’t try to time any of this stuff. I have been getting the question lately based on what info we do have so that lead to this post.
How is the market looking in your area?
Thanks for reading.